We are excited to announce that Backpack Exchange is listing two new outcome-based tokens (a.k.a. prediction markets) with TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS.

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Prediction markets let users bet on the outcomes of future events, in this case the result of the 2024 U.S. election.

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Explore the new TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS markets here.

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Please note: Users from the United States, United Kingdom, or UAE are not eligible to participate in this event.

Liquidity Providers who are participants of the MM (Market Maker) Program are not eligible to participate in this event.

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What are prediction markets?

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Prediction markets enable traders to bet on the outcome of future events by buying and selling tokens that represent specific results.

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In this case, TRUMPWINS represents a victory for Donald Trump and HARRISWINS represents a victory for Kamala Harris. The value of these tokens will fluctuate based on market sentiment and the perceived likelihood of each candidate winning.

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Before the election is settled, TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS tokens will trade for less than 1 USDC. This is because the market price of the tokens is based on the probability of each candidate winning:

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Once the election is completed, either TRUMPWINS or HARRISWINS will be redeemable for $1 USDC per token.

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In the unlikely scenario that neither Trump nor Harris wins, both tokens can be redeemed for $0.5 USDC per token.

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What is OutcomeMarket and Wintermute?

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OutcomeMarket is the latest smart contract from Wintermute that enables users to speculate on real world events by minting outcome-based tokens like TRUMPWINS and HARRISWINS.

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The tokens are minted via the OutcomeMarket smart contract which holds the USDC until after the event is completed. Once the event is completed, in this case the 2024 U.S. Election, the tokens are redeemable for the original USDC mint cost. This provides a clear payoff structure for the winning token.

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• OutcomeMarket acts as a vault that accepts USDC and mints OutcomeERC20s while holding the funds until the market's settlement.
• Settlement is managed with Edge Proofs oracle by Chaos Labs.
• The contract is currently deployed on Ethereum, Arbitrum and Base.

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Wintermute is the creator of the OutcomeMarket contract, a leading crypto market maker. Known for providing liquidity across various trading platforms, Wintermute plays a key role in ensuring smooth operations for outcome-based markets by maintaining liquidity and helping manage the infrastructure.

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Importantly, Wintermute has deployed the contracts in a way that makes them immutable and permissionless, meaning they cannot be altered after deployment, ensuring transparency and security for all users.

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The contracts have been audited by both Hexens and Cyfrin.

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• No major findings were reported and minor concerns have been fixed.

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How does OutcomeMarket work?

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The OutcomeMarket smart contract allows users to deposit USDC and receive two different tokens, one representing a possible outcome in an event.

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In the case of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the tokens are:
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• TRUMPWINS: Represents Donald Trump winning the election.
• HARRISWINS: Represents Kamala Harris winning the election.

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For example, if you deposit 100 USDC into the OutcomeMarket contract, you will receive 100 TRUMPWINS and 100 HARRISWINS tokens.

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Once you have the tokens, you can trade them on supported platforms like Backpack Exchange. The prices of these tokens will fluctuate based on market sentiment, news, and polling data.

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After the election, the results are determined by a decentralized oracle called Edge Proofs. This oracle gathers data from reliable sources and pushes the outcome to the OutcomeMarket contract.

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Want to learn more about prediction markets, trading, and crypto? Check out our learn section!

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