‍Bitcoin Decline: Why BTC Dropped to $77,000 and What Comes Next (2026)

‍‍

The recent Bitcoin decline has shocked cryptocurrency markets, with BTC plummeting from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to below $77,000 in early February 2026. This dramatic 39% drop has erased approximately $800 billion in market value and pushed Bitcoin out of the global top 10 assets for the first time in years.

‍

Understanding why Bitcoin is declining, what's driving the sell-off, and what investors can expect next has become crucial for anyone holding or considering cryptocurrency investments.

‍

Bitcoin Decline: At a Glance

‍

• Recent price: Around $77,000
  
  
• Peak level: ~$126,000 (late 2025)
  
  
• Drawdown from peak: ~39%
  
  
• Market trend: Multiple consecutive monthly declines
  
  
• Key support zones: $75,000 → $70,000 → $58,000
  
  
• Primary drivers: Macro policy uncertainty, liquidity stress, leveraged liquidations
  
  

What Is Happening to Bitcoin?

‍

Bitcoin is experiencing its most significant downturn since the 2022 crypto winter. Prices have fallen sharply, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value and reversing much of the gains from last year’s rally.

‍

This move has gone beyond a short-term pullback. Bitcoin recorded its fourth consecutive monthly decline in January 2026, the longest losing streak since 2018. The selling pressure intensified in early February, when thin trading conditions amplified price swings and triggered a wave of liquidations across leveraged positions.

‍

Why Is Bitcoin Declining?

‍

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair Nomination

‍

President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh raised concerns about tighter monetary policy. Warsh is widely viewed as hawkish on inflation, which is negative for risk assets like Bitcoin. BTC fell sharply following the announcement.

‍

Rising Geopolitical Tensions

‍

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran pushed markets into risk-off mode. Bitcoin declined alongside equities instead of acting as a safe haven.

‍

Stronger US Dollar

‍

The US dollar strengthened as markets priced in more disciplined monetary policy. A stronger dollar typically pressures Bitcoin by reducing international demand.

‍

Negative Bitcoin ETF Flows

‍

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded sustained outflows after earlier inflows drove the rally. Institutional investors shifting to net selling removed a key source of price support.

‍

Weak Market Liquidity

‍

Liquidity across major exchanges has thinned significantly. In low-liquidity conditions, even moderate selling can lead to sharp price declines.

‍

Leveraged Position Liquidations

‍

As Bitcoin broke below key levels, a wave of leveraged long positions was liquidated. These forced sales accelerated downside momentum.

‍

Miner Selling Pressure

‍

Bitcoin miners have increased transfers to exchanges to cover operating costs. This added supply has contributed to ongoing selling pressure.

‍

Corporate Treasury Buyers Pausing Purchases

‍

Companies that previously accumulated Bitcoin have slowed or halted new buying. Lower equity valuations and tighter financing conditions have reduced their ability to deploy capital.

‍

How Low Can Bitcoin Go? Expert Predictions

‍

Short-Term Targets: $70,000-$75,000

‍

John Glover, CIO of bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that the current selloff could ultimately drag BTC to $71,000, representing a 43% decline from the October high.

Glassnode highlighted a $1.25 billion short gamma pocket at around $80,000, noting that a clean break into this zone would increase the risk of Bitcoin revisiting the $70,000 range.

‍

Medium-Term Risk: $58,000

‍

Bitcoin has fallen decisively below its 100-week simple moving average around $85,000. A further slide could see Bitcoin test its 200-week average near $58,000.

This technical level represents a major support zone that has historically provided buying interest during previous bear markets.

‍

Worst-Case Scenario: $25,000-$30,000

‍

Some analysts have raised the possibility of a deeper correction similar to previous crypto winters. If there were another 80% decline from the October 2025 high of $126,000, Bitcoin would be around $25,000.

‍

While this represents an extreme scenario, it's not unprecedented. Bitcoin declined approximately 80% during the 2022 crypto winter, from peak to trough.

‍

Bullish Case: $110,000-$150,000

‍

Not all experts are bearish. Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, expects Bitcoin to remain in a "high-volatility range" between $75,000 and $150,000 in 2026, with the center of gravity around $110,000.

‍

Standard Chartered maintains a Bitcoin price forecast of $150,000 for 2026, though this was revised down from a previous target of $300,000.

‍

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

‍

Support Levels

‍

• $75,000: Psychological and historical support
  
  
• $70,000: Widely monitored downside target
  
  
• $58,000: Long term structural support
  
  

Resistance Levels

‍

• $85,000: Former support turned resistance
  
  
• $95,000: Level required to improve momentum
  
  
• $100,000: Major psychological barrier
  
  

Bearish Technical Indicators

‍

Monthly MACD Crossover

‍

Analyst Eric Crown warns that the monthly MACD crossed down in November, a rare signal that has preceded extended downturns in previous cycles.

This indicator has historically been accurate in signaling major trend reversals in Bitcoin.

‍

Weekly EMA Bearish Cross

‍

The weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA recently crossed into bearish territory. When this happens, it is typically followed by multi-month losses.

‍

Shooting Star Yearly Candle

‍

The 2025 yearly chart closed as a "shooting star," a candlestick pattern that often signals a medium-term reversal.

‍

Is This Another Crypto Winter?

‍

Many analysts are drawing comparisons between the current Bitcoin decline and previous crypto winters, particularly 2022 and 2018.

‍

Similarities to 2022

‍

• Sustained price decline from all-time highs
• Liquidity crisis in crypto markets
• Forced liquidations of leveraged positions
• Loss of institutional buying support
• Duration of multiple months
  
  

Differences From 2022

‍

The 2022 crypto winter featured spectacular failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Terra/LUNA. While the current decline is severe, there haven't been comparable systemic failures yet in 2026.

‍

Historical Recovery Timelines

‍

After the 2021 peak, Bitcoin took 28 months to recover. After the 2017 boom, it took nearly three years. By those standards, the current downturn may still be in its early innings.

This suggests that even if Bitcoin finds a bottom soon, a return to all-time highs could take years rather than months.

When Will Bitcoin Recover?

‍

The timeline for Bitcoin recovery depends on several factors:

‍

Positive Catalysts That Could Reverse the Decline

‍

Fed Policy Shift: If Kevin Warsh or the current Fed begins cutting interest rates more aggressively, it could support risk assets including Bitcoin.

Geopolitical Resolution: Easing tensions in the Middle East or other conflict zones could restore risk appetite.

Institutional Re-entry: If major institutions resume Bitcoin purchases through ETFs or treasury strategies, it could provide price support.

Technical Bottom Formation: Clear bottoming patterns on longer timeframes would attract buyers back to the market.

Negative Factors That Could Extend the Decline

‍

Further Fed Tightening: If inflation remains elevated and rates stay high or increase, Bitcoin could face continued headwinds.

Regulatory Crackdown: Stricter cryptocurrency regulations could further dampen institutional interest.

‍

Continued Liquidations: If highly leveraged entities or DATs are forced to sell more Bitcoin, it could push prices lower.

‍

Macro Recession: A broader economic downturn would likely pressure all risk assets including Bitcoin.

‍

Bitcoin Decline vs. Other Assets

‍

Gold Performance

‍

While Bitcoin declined, gold reached near-record highs above $5,600 per ounce before correcting. This divergence highlights Bitcoin's continued status as a risk asset rather than a safe haven.

‍

Stock Market Correlation

‍

Bitcoin has largely tracked technology stocks and other risk assets during the decline, undermining its narrative as an uncorrelated asset.

‍

Altcoin Impact

‍

Ethereum, Solana, XRP and DOGE were all roughly 7% lower over the last 24-hour period. Most altcoins have declined even more than Bitcoin, as they typically amplify Bitcoin's moves in both directions.

‍

Long-Term Perspective

‍

Despite the current Bitcoin decline, it's important to maintain perspective:

‍

Bitcoin Has Survived Before: This is Bitcoin's fourth major bear market. It recovered from all previous downturns, though recovery took time.

‍

Adoption Continues: Long-term adoption metrics like wallet addresses and on-chain activity remain healthy despite price declines.

‍

Infrastructure Improving: Exchange infrastructure, custody solutions, and regulatory frameworks continue improving regardless of short-term price action.

‍

Halving Cycles: Bitcoin historically performs well in the year following halvings (the most recent was in 2024), suggesting the current cycle may not be over.

‍

Conclusion

‍

The Bitcoin decline below $77,000 reflects a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, weak liquidity, and structural selling pressure. While further downside remains possible, history shows that Bitcoin has recovered from previous bear markets, though often over extended timeframes.

For now, markets remain cautious, with investors focused on key support levels and signs that selling pressure is beginning to ease.

‍