Is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Still Intact? What 2026 Data Shows

‍

Bitcoin has dropped over 45% from its all-time high of approximately $126,000, set in October 2025. As of mid-February 2026, it trades around $66,000–$70,000, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sitting in "extreme fear" territory.

‍

For proponents of Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle, this downturn is expected — even overdue. But a growing number of analysts argue that the cycle as we knew it may no longer apply. Here's what the data shows.

‍

What Is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle?

‍

Bitcoin's price has historically followed a pattern tied to its halving events — the approximately four-year intervals at which mining rewards are cut in half, reducing the rate of new BTC supply.

‍

The pattern typically looks like this:

‍

• Halving occurs (supply shock)
  
  
• 12–18 months later: Price peaks in a parabolic rally
  
  
• Following 12–18 months: Sharp correction (historically 76–85% drawdowns)
  
  
• Accumulation phase before the next halving
  
  

Historical examples:

‍

• 2012 halving → peak near $1,000 in late 2013
  
  
• 2016 halving → peak near $20,000 in late 2017
  
  
• 2020 halving → peak near $69,000 in November 2021
  
  
• 2024 halving → peak near $126,000 in October 2025
  
  

If the pattern holds, 2026 would be a "bear year" — the correction phase following the post-halving peak.

‍

What Happened in 2025?

‍

2025 was supposed to be the crescendo year. It was the year after the April 2024 halving, spot Bitcoin ETFs had launched, a "Bitcoin President" had been inaugurated, and institutional infrastructure was more developed than ever.

‍

But 2025 broke the script in a key way: for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the post-halving year finished in the red. Prices declined approximately 6% from the January open, with the peak arriving in October rather than the expected Q4 blow-off top.

‍

The post-2024 halving phase produced only about 100% gains to the October peak — significantly smaller than previous cycles (9,300% in 2013, 2,300% in 2017, 260% in 2021). This pattern of diminishing returns has been consistent across every cycle.

‍

The Case That the Cycle Is Intact

‍

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer represents the traditionalist camp. His analysis shows that Bitcoin's October 2025 peak of $126,000, arriving 145 weeks after the rally began, "fits pretty well" with previous cycle patterns in both price and timing.

‍

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg told CNBC in February 2026 that he expects Bitcoin to fall as low as $50,000 by summer, consistent with a standard bear year in the 4-year framework.

‍

Morgan Stanley has also stated that the 4-year cycle remains intact and the bull market is nearing its end.

‍

Supporting data points:

‍

• The October 2025 peak occurred roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving — consistent with historical timing
  
  
• The current drawdown of ~45% is within the range of early bear market corrections in previous cycles
  
  
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in "extreme fear" since early February, similar to levels seen during the 2022 bear market following the FTX collapse
  
  
• $8.7 billion in Bitcoin losses were realized in a single week in mid-February 2026, the second-largest realized loss event after the 3AC collapse
  
  

The Case That the Cycle Is Breaking

‍

A growing chorus of analysts — including Grayscale, Bitwise's Matt Hougan, and ARK's Cathie Wood — argues the traditional cycle is no longer the dominant market force.

‍

Their reasoning:

‍

ETF flows now dominate supply dynamics. Bitcoin ETFs routinely move $500 million or more daily. The halving reduced new daily supply by roughly $40 million. ETF flows now move more capital in a month than miners produce in a year. This makes institutional demand, not supply shocks, the marginal price driver.

‍

Bitcoin trades like a macro asset. Grayscale research shows BTC has been moving in tight correlation with software stocks. Rather than following internal supply dynamics, Bitcoin increasingly responds to Fed policy, global liquidity, and risk appetite.

‍

The market cap is too large for old dynamics. With a total market cap above $1.5 trillion, moving Bitcoin's price requires far more capital than in 2016 or 2020. This "weight" naturally leads to subdued volatility and more elongated cycles.

‍

Some analysts see a 5-year cycle. A growing perspective suggests Bitcoin now follows global liquidity cycles rather than halving cycles. Global M2 money supply expansion, not mining reward changes, is seen as the real driver. Under this framework, the next peak could extend into mid-2026 rather than ending in late 2025.

‍

Key On-Chain Data Points

‍

• MVRV ratio: Deeply negative at -29% for Bitcoin as of mid-February 2026, suggesting the market is in a low-risk accumulation zone historically associated with bottoms
  
  
• Whale accumulation: Key whale tiers (10–10,000 BTC) have added over 18,000 BTC in the past week, though retail is also buying, which typically isn't ideal for a clean bottom signal
  
  
• Trading volume: Down 61% week-over-week, indicating capitulation and trader paralysis
  
  
• Sentiment: The ratio of bullish to bearish comments sits below 1.0, meaning more negative than positive commentary — historically, this level of fear has preceded recoveries
  
  

What This Means for Traders

‍

The honest answer is that no one knows whether the 4-year cycle will continue to hold or whether institutional participation has permanently altered the dynamic. Both camps have credible evidence.

‍

What is clear:

‍

• The halving still matters for long-term supply dynamics, but it is no longer the marginal price driver it once was
  
  
• Fed policy, ETF flows, and global liquidity are now equally or more important than internal Bitcoin supply mechanics
  
  
• Previous bear market corrections of 76–85% lasted approximately 12–18 months — if the current correction follows that pattern, it could extend through late 2026 or early 2027
  
  
• However, institutional demand provides a structural floor that did not exist in previous cycles. The average ETF cost basis around $80,000 creates a level where institutional investors are unlikely to panic sell
  
  

The most balanced approach may be to watch flows rather than halvings, monitor macroeconomic catalysts (particularly Fed rate decisions), and avoid over-relying on any single cycle model.

‍

Conclusion

‍

Bitcoin's 4-year cycle has been the most reliable framework for understanding price behavior over the past decade. The current drawdown is consistent with its predictions. But the entrance of institutional capital, ETF infrastructure, and macro correlation means the cycle may be evolving from a deterministic model into a more nuanced framework.

‍

Whether you believe the cycle is intact, broken, or simply stretching, the underlying data suggests that Bitcoin's market structure is maturing — and the tools for analyzing it need to mature with it.

‍

Learn more about Backpack

Exchange | Wallet | Twitter | Discord

‍

Disclaimer: This content is presented to you on an "as is" basis for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind. It should not be construed as financial, legal or other professional advice, nor is it intended to recommend the purchase of any specific product or service. You should seek your own advice from appropriate professional advisors. Where the article is contributed by a third party contributor, please note that those views expressed belong to the third party contributor, and do not necessarily reflect those of Backpack. Please read our full disclaimer for further details. Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Backpack is not liable for any losses you may incur. This material should not be construed as financial, legal or other professional advice.